Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult to achieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave in a way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It has been shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared with all-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approach of using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Since these values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbing state), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements as well as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison (1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that the unit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrement mortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed in compositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortality by cause of death for Japan

Noves tècniques de gestió per a l'empresa promotora constructora

En el sector de la promoció construcció, i en especial, en el subsector de la promoció construcció d'habitatges, l'empresari ha de tenir un bon coneixement de les variables d'entorn ja que la consideració de les mateixes seran fonamentals a l'hora de prendre decisions sobre planificació estratègica. En l'actualitat vivim una fase de canvis socioeconòmics que dificulten la previsió del comportament futur de les variables d'entorn. Per tant, el subjecte decisor es troba en un ambient d'incertesa que s'aguditza per la majoritària presència de factors qualitatius difícils de quantificar. Llavors, l'empresari promotor constructor haurà de recórrer a tècniques operatives de gestió que tinguin present aquesta situació i això serà possible a partir de les eines que ens ofereix la lògica borrosa. Aquesta tesi s'ha estructurat en tres parts: En la primera part, exposem les característiques específiques i l'evolució del sector. En la segona part, expliquem la metodologia i, en la tercera part, exposem diverses aplicacions de la metodologia borrosa per l'establiment de noves estratègies de gestió aplicades al sector objecte d'estudi.

Atmospheric downwelling longwave radiation at the surface during cloudless and overcast conditions. Measurements and modeling

Atmospheric downwelling longwave radiation is an important component of the terrestrial energy budget; since it is strongly related with the greenhouse effect, it remarkably affects the climate. In this study, I evaluate the estimation of the downwelling longwave irradiance at the terrestrial surface for cloudless and overcast conditions using a one-dimensional radiative transfer model (RTM), specifically the Santa Barbara DISORT Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (SBDART). The calculations performed by using this model were compared with pyrgeometer measurements at three different European places: Girona (NE of the Iberian Peninsula), Payerne (in the East of Switzerland), and Heselbach (in the Black Forest, Germany). Several studies of sensitivity based on the radiative transfer model have shown that special attention on the input of temperature and water content profiles must be held for cloudless sky conditions; for overcast conditions, similar sensitivity studies have shown that, besides the atmospheric profiles, the cloud base height is very relevant, at least for optically thick clouds. Also, the estimation of DLR in places where radiosoundings are not available is explored, either by using the atmospheric profiles spatially interpolated from the gridded analysis data provided by European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF), or by applying a real radiosounding of a nearby site. Calculations have been compared with measurements at all sites. During cloudless sky conditions, when radiosoundings were available, calculations show differences with measurements of -2.7 ± 3.4 Wm-2 (Payerne). While no in situ radiosoundings are available, differences between modeling and measurements were about 0.3 ± 9.4 Wm-2 (Girona). During overcast sky conditions, when in situ radiosoundings and cloud properties (derived from an algorithm that uses spectral infrared and microwave ground based measurements) were available (Black Forest), calculations show differences with measurements of -0.28 ± 2.52 Wm2. When using atmospheric profiles from the ECMWF and fixed values of liquid water path and droplet effective radius (Girona) calculations show differences with measurements of 4.0 ± 2.5 Wm2. For all analyzed sky conditions, it has been confirmed that estimations from radiative transfer modeling are remarkably better than those obtained by simple parameterizations of atmospheric emissivity.

Assessment of virtual design and manufacturing techniques for fibre reinforced composite materials

Virtual tools are commonly used nowadays to optimize product design and manufacturing process of fibre reinforced composite materials. The present work focuses on two areas of interest to forecast the part performance and the production process particularities. The first part proposes a multi-physical optimization tool to support the concept stage of a composite part. The strategy is based on the strategic handling of information and, through a single control parameter, is able to evaluate the effects of design variations throughout all these steps in parallel. The second part targets the resin infusion process and the impact of thermal effects. The numerical and experimental approach allowed the identificationof improvement opportunities regarding the implementation of algorithms in commercially available simulation software.